Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.524061 2.689620 2.866071 3.069085 3.297431 3.547783 3.845036
2025-03-30 2.259913 2.480269 2.727444 3.028453 3.389662 3.815319 4.364572
2025-04-06 2.084552 2.332043 2.619195 2.982782 3.439763 4.008243 4.791942
2025-04-13 1.935680 2.195008 2.503259 2.904896 3.427717 4.106348 5.094152
2025-04-20 1.865383 2.143493 2.482067 2.936166 3.549181 4.381991 5.670240
2025-04-27 1.817574 2.114012 2.482961 2.991504 3.702660 4.713954 6.381424
2025-05-04 1.774896 2.086701 2.482538 3.041942 3.850515 5.052345 7.166687
2025-05-11 1.708697 2.024490 2.431189 3.016629 3.884163 5.218586 7.692532
2025-05-18 1.651193 1.970106 2.386230 2.995493 3.919667 5.388822 8.258913
2025-05-25 1.596838 1.916915 2.339369 2.967286 3.940016 5.534040 8.807964
2025-06-01 1.546888 1.867148 2.294230 2.937801 3.954375 5.668720 9.366638
2025-06-08 1.511264 1.834988 2.271567 2.939451 4.017588 5.896202 10.190803
2025-06-15 1.487433 1.818532 2.270957 2.975550 4.143065 6.261287 11.482178
2025-06-22 1.441826 1.770163 2.222423 2.934563 4.134061 6.367441 12.157343
2025-06-29 1.398652 1.723554 2.174294 2.891102 4.116567 6.453657 12.812975
2025-07-06 1.349442 1.666848 2.109199 2.817149 4.039178 6.406661 13.062818
2025-07-13 1.332384 1.654838 2.109026 2.846844 4.149912 6.772433 14.780076
2025-07-20 1.322497 1.652462 2.122693 2.899371 4.307092 7.268969 17.292811
2025-07-27 1.311800 1.648378 2.133358 2.947217 4.460021 7.788264 20.381746
2025-08-03 1.283629 1.617969 2.102655 2.923208 4.470239 7.962432 22.114634
2025-08-10 1.257896 1.590346 2.075176 2.903156 4.486489 8.155478 24.159040
2025-08-17 1.231833 1.561494 2.044760 2.876388 4.486750 8.307294 26.173769
2025-08-24 1.206713 1.533363 2.014517 2.848397 4.482187 8.446209 28.322298